Wednesday, July 18, 2007

Accuweather.com

I know, it's almost two months since the last post. Well, we moved house and, anyway, the climate continues to change whether I post or not!

But here is an excellent weather forecasting blog from Joe Bastardi of accuweather.com. It looks as though the link will change with time, so, having given full credit to the man, here is what he has to say about the present climate situation. It makes for interesting reading.

INNNNCOMMMMMMMINNNNNNNGGGGG!!!!!!!

It's been a warm summer so far across Europe and that is par for the course given the warm cycle of the AMO that is occurring. The amount of rain across the north has been something that has made news headlines, specifically in England. But there is a reason for that... the atmosphere is fighting back, in other words this cycle of warming is starting to get countered, as it always has been in these warm cycles and it always will be. The question on this day of "live earth" is whether the counter is something that will ignore the sins of man like it always had, or have become the power we think we are that can change what is infinite compared to us. I am fascinated by the whole debate here, for it crosses all sorts of lines.. scientific, political, economical, moral and spiritual.

What fascinates me most is that the leading spokesmen for the human induced sides have very little long term weather background. You can have all the degrees in climatology you want, but how long have you studied and loved the weather. The actual nuts and bolts of what happened when the details of periods of weather and the change in the course of the weather, which is all the climate is. There is one person I am convinced that has the WEATHER background, not the background in anthropology or politics or chemistry or math or physics that evolved into the weather, but the WEATHER, who over the years in my association with him has led me to believe that yes, man could have some affect and that is our own Jim Andrews here at AccuWeather.com. You see, I would love to debate most of the spokespeople I have seen that are arguing that we are the cause, for they don't know what I know, but Jim does and that would be an interesting debate. In fact, we talk about it all the time. However, Jim knows all that I know too, so he sees my points. If I get a climate scientist with a background in anthropology or chemistry or physics, what they do know penalizes them, because they see things through their backgrounds. In other words, the climate is causing the changes in what they see, not the idea that the changes may be occurring because of some other process (evolution). A bug shows up someplace where its never been before and its because the climate is changing. Well, a) Climate always changes and b) Maybe the bug is getting tougher so it can live there. But it then comes back to man messing around and causing everything to go haywire.

Lets take this summer of global warming being blamed for everything from floods to drought. Guess what, there have always been floods, there has always been drought. The idea that the Earth is Eden and that the climate should be perfect everywhere is trying to be something bigger than what we are. But the fact there is so much rain going on in places that we see it, all near bodies of water, is another sign of the reversal that nature has planned starting to develop. In the case of Europe, it's because the water in the warm cycle of the AMO is very warm. But guess what, the upper levels aren't and in fact have been cooler than normal over northwestern Europe all summer. So it creates a warmer, more moist lower level relative to averages, but with it cooler in the upper levels, a pattern much more conducive to heavy rain near and north of the main jet axis. The same thing has been going on in India. The warmth of the low to midlevels and the pulling north of the monsoonal jet a bit stronger than normal, because of the heating of the high ground of Asia has resulted in more rain there. The Alps in Europe in times like this are a giant vacuum, pulling air toward them. So, if it's warmer and more moist northwest of there, guess what happens, that air is pulled toward them. In the south and east of Europe, the action of the Alps being heated is pulling air from the southwest toward the Alps, so Italy and Greece are warm. Guess what happens to that air once it comes over the Alps and turns east and north. Bingo, big time warmth over much of eastern and northeastern Europe. But if it was a rout, in other words no fight back, it would just be warm all the time, instead we do see the ebb and flow of the pattern, though it is biased warm. Why? THE OCEAN WEST OF US, THE ATLANTIC IS WARM!!!! ITS SUPPOSED TO BE BECAUSE WE ARE BACK IN THE 30S, 40S, 50S AGAIN.

Now there is another twist, which of course, if you are looking to discover the missing link, you sometimes will not see the log your own eye while searching for the speck in another. To me the most obvious culprit is the sun. It is stronger then it has ever been over a longer term, and the last cycle of the warm AMO it was not as strong as it has been in this. Now, which is easier to warm up, a body or water or a mass of land? Well if you have ever been to the ocean, you know it's slow to warm and slow to cool, but the deserts, well you get my point. Now here is the next question. Which is easier to warm from below, dense air or dry air. Well now lets think about that. Why is it so hot on Mars when the sun is out, and so cold at night? Why is the average temperature change where it's dry here on earth, (day to night variance) greater then where its not? Because the air is less dense. So with a stronger sun than normal, which would heat up more and have a bigger feedback on the warm side during the summer? The mountains. Hence the reasons glaciers are on the INCREASE in the Himalayas's more precipitation because its warmer. They are twice as high as the Alps or Rockies, which warm up. So the oceans are warmer because of the cycle we are in, the continents warm more since most of the land mass is in the Northern Hemisphere and the warm AMO means a colder equatorial Pacific, but warmer in the northern Pacific. Surround land with warm water and increase the amount of radiation and guess what happens. You are seeing it. This is not much different from the 30s through 50s, (example: the Asian subcontinent where winter chill last year and the rain this year were near the records set in the 30s), but there is a twist, the sun is stronger and one does not need that big an increase to cause extra reaction to a blackbody, which is what the earth is.

However, there is another twist. The CO2, which is probably because of the warming, not the cause of the warming, is greater, but guess what is much less now??? The amount of Sulfuric compounds in the air. This means that the air is clearer and more radiation can do its job. This of course would really have an affect on the high ground since a brighter sun would mean more heating there in the summer.

Now this seems like a viscous cycle with no way out. Except that there is a way out, though be careful for what you wish for. The sun, like all things in nature, is cyclical. There are 11 year sunspot cycles, but there is also a much longer term cycle that we have reached a peak in now and that fits almost glove in hand with the measured temperature of the earth and the CO2 pulses. The danger here is that if the natural fight back of the earth, which all things equal would lead to a leveling off and temporary reversal of the warming occurred as the sun started its lessening process, it could launch the earth into a mini ice age again. One of the theories of that has to do with the amount of incoming solar radiation, but its like a double whammy here, the earth naturally fighting back and then the thing its fighting back from suddenly no longer being there. It's almost like being in a penalty situation in a hockey game, where not only are 2 people forced to sit, but they are your two stars.

Has anyone gone back and looked at the SOI during the last period of warming. Interesting, for though we did not have reputable measurements of the ocean then (another problem I have, comparing data today with yesterday and assuming we would not be measuring even wilder things then when the weather was wild. For Europeans the storm that preceded the D-DAY invasion should be an example of what the weather is capable of even in the summer season, and that was back in the 40s!) It was very tough to get an El Nino going. Now why is that? Well if we notice now the El Nino's that are occurring are weak-ish and don't last long, the last one was classic with people screaming it would go to the '97-'98 levels and then it fell apart. The fact is without a reason (volcanic activity in the tropics) to get these things cranking up, it is very tough to sustain them. The reason is because of the weather over the Asian subcontinent and the melting of the northern ice cap FROM BELOW because of the warming of the North Atlantic. That releases fresh cold water to the bottom of the Atlantic, which comes under the warmer water as it flows south and around South America, then turns north up the South American coast and then west out into the equatorial Pacific. Has anyone noticed how cold the waters have gotten relative to averages off South Africa and South America. In any case when the Pacific is in its cold cycle of the PDO, the Atlantic is in its warm cycle and the results are what we see now. The lack of the warm Pacific then leads to feedback that starts to turn things around also. This is known as the thermohaline cycle and is part and parcel of the climate and has been since South America separated from Antarctica and the Panama closed the Pacific from the Atlantic.

Now here is what I want you to think about. 1) How many of the front people for the humans are to blame crowd for everything that goes wrong know about this, and if they do, why don't they acknowledge it. You know what is interesting. If you only talk to people that agree with you, then you don't know something else exists. So what happens is, for some, the debate is over because they refuse to listen to anyone that may be bringing up other points. 2) My views on this are driven by weather and the pursuit of the truth here. As far as the earth goes. I look at it as a garden we have been given. There are compelling reasons that have nothing to do with the blame game now for taking the best care of that garden, some of them having to do with issues of our way of life surviving because we have to figure out other ways to advance without reliance on things that can be taken away by other people. As far as worrying about what we are doing to nature, I think that nature, if it was personified would laugh at some of our visions of grandeur that we have about ourselves. We are tenants, not the owners of the earth, the earth owns us!

So on this day of live earth, here is a lively little piece of prose (some may say its a piece of something else) that may help you understand the euro weather picture in terms of the picture and perhaps expose you to a canvas you may not have seen before.

thanks for reading, ciao for now ***

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