Wednesday, February 16, 2005

The Kyoto Protocol Takes Effect

So today the Kyoto Protocol takes effect. Is it just a load of hot air? Unfortunatey I believe so. More global warming will take place as a result of all those politicians talking up a storm on the backs of too many "please fund us" scientists.

A man made global warming catastrophe is on the horizon and it is fast sending us to an early and very warm grave. At least that's what the pundits want us to believe. Here is an explanation taken from the BBC web site in order to explain the greenhouse gas effect:

The greenhouse effect is the natural process by which the atmosphere traps some of the Sun's energy, warming the Earth enough to support life.

Most mainstream scientists believe a human-driven increase in "greenhouse gases" is increasing the effect artificially.

These gases include carbon dioxide, emitted by fossil fuel burning and deforestation, and methane, released from rice paddies and landfill sites.

Not much here, in my opinion. The first paragraph states the obvious - we need greenhouse gases to retain warmth so that we can live. So they are actually essential to life! The second paragraph begins "most mainstream scientists believe" which suggests that scientists are no more than religious zealots, "believing" something to be true rather than attempting to experiment and prove a truth or falsehood. That bothers me. The third paragraph gives some examples and I find all of them rather difficult to accept in the greater sphere of Earth's cycles. For example, we now have methane escaping from landfills and rice paddies. But there is also a much larger underlying natural escape of methane from volcanos and sedimentary rocks - the very mechanisms that create the gases in the first place that provided us with a warm, liveable planet in which to evolve and thrive!

My real problem is in the science - they may be right but they have made little attempt to prove anything at all. For example, many computer models have been woefully wrong (garbage in, garbage out sounds too close to landfills to me!) so the scientists quickly suggest that more funding is needed to rectify the models so that they can prove global warming. Then again, the entire episode of man made activity is so very short that it makes no sense to make statements that "temperatures will rise xº in y years" because of man made activity when we have no appreciation of what the Earth as a whole is going to do during the same time period. It is rather like looking at the chart of a stock price over the past week and making investment decisions for the next year based on only that information. Remember we just (in geological terms) went through four Ice Ages and man had absolutely nothing to do with creating or ending them. Nature is quite capable of bringing us catastrophic weather changes, that we do know!

And that is the problem. As seen following the Indian Ocean Tsunami, the human race has started to believe it is responsible for causing natural disasters even when it doesn't have the collective power or energy at its disposal to do anything like the damage of a single major natural disaster.

Just as people rush to pour money into rebuilding vulnerable fishing villages and beach resorts in the east Indian Ocean, the Kyoto Protocol is going to force nations to subsidize uneconomic activities that have yet to be proven to have any merit. I am absolutely behind the US Government on this one. It's a real pity that so few rational people have the vision and resolution to stand up to the Chicken Littles. But here is one piece of enlightened writing!